On the stock market, such figures would be called a crash. There's no need to sugarcoat it: The bicycle industry is in the biggest crisis in its history. This is underlined by the 2024 Swiss market figures published by the industry association Velosuisse.

The flagship of the bicycle industry, mountain bikes, has been hit particularly hard. Only once (2013; 113,184 units) since the start of Velosuisse records have so few mountain bikes been sold in Switzerland as in 2024. To be more precise, there were 113,862 units. Compared to the coronavirus peak, this is a devastating decline of 38 percent. Both organic bikes (-17%) and e-bikes (-12%) were affected by the decline. Notably, this decline is taking place while stocks remain overflowing - which means they will take even longer to clear.

Analogy to the overall market

The overall bicycle market shows a similar picture to the mountain bike segment. In 2024, this was down another 14 percent compared to the already miserable previous year. Here, too, e-bikes are slightly less affected with a decline of 12 percent. In contrast to mountain bikes, the overall market is not showing an all-time low. However, never in 15 years have so few bikes been sold as in 2024.

Constant segment distribution

The segmentation of the bicycle market remains unchanged. The strongest-selling segment is still the everyday segment with almost half of the market share. The mountain bike segment is relatively stable with a share of just over a third, making it clearly the strongest segment in the sports segment. Road bikes and gravel both have a market share of 5 percent each. The currently much-discussed gravel trend cannot be seen in the industry figures.

Why and what next?

The 2024 market figures for the bicycle industry are not pretty to look at. After extreme growth during the coronavirus pandemic, it is now struggling with the hangover after the party. The gold-rush mood has given way to tense disillusionment. The development of market figures could give the impression that the industry is in free fall. However, experts believe that the bottom is likely to be reached in 2025 and that the disrupted relationship between supply and demand should return to normal. In the long term, experts even see great potential for the industry, as low-emission mobility is set to become a central and global factor.

The cause of the current crisis lies in the coronavirus pandemic. During this time, bike stores were overrun and stocks were virtually empty. The resulting increase in production then collided with lower demand after the pandemic, which led to overfilled warehouses. The negative sides of the Covid restrictions are now manifesting themselves in the bicycle industry like a backlash.

The complete 2024 market data from Velosuisse: velosuisse.ch/news-statistik

The bullwhip effect

There is a technical term for the current situation in the bicycle industry: the bullwhip effect. Like a whip, end customers trigger demand, in this case during the Covid pandemic. This demand is then whipped up to the manufacturer. The result is overproduction and severely disrupted market structures.