For the bicycle trade, 2020 was both the worst and the best year. Demand was at an all-time high - but satisfying it was difficult or even impossible. Triggered by this asymmetry, numerous bike sellers ordered a large number of bikes - and in some cases, these are only now arriving with a long delay. Now the pandemic is over, demand for bikes has normalized and war, the energy crisis and inflation are the dominant themes. This results in a potentially explosive mix: there could be an oversupply of bikes in some places.