It is difficult to predict how the US economy and the global economy will develop during Donald Trump's presidency. In the run-up to the elections, the general consensus was that the dollar would collapse with President Trump. Now, surprisingly, the opposite is happening. In November, the dollar gained significantly in value against several currencies, including the euro and the franc, by up to 10 percent.

If Trump keeps his word from the election campaign, things will soon be bad for US bikes manufactured in Taiwan. This is because the world's workbench, i.e. China - which includes Taiwan - will no longer be the first port of call for the production of goods in future due to protectionism. If this protectionist scenario actually comes to pass, the US bike industry is likely to be hit in the heart and bikes will probably become massively more expensive.

Interesting period for Specialized

Specialized is well aware of the importance of politics. "It is indeed an interesting period that we are approaching. What it really means is yet to be seen. It's simply too early to identify a clear direction here," says Specialized Marketing Manager Sebastian Maag. The marketing professional also immediately refers to the sport and the Californian bike manufacturer out of the political context: "We focus on the rider and continue to convey the joy of cycling, regardless of the global political irritations."

No speculation at Shimano

"It's difficult to make a statement. Because we don't talk about things like management strategies, business movements, production scales or capacities," says Ben Hillsdon, PR Officer at Shimano Europe. "Any comment would be pure speculation and just a personal opinion that would be far too open to interpretation," Hillsdon continues.

Differentiated perspective from California

"Much of what Trump said and promised during the election campaign will be difficult or even impossible to implement," says Scot Nicol, the boss of Californian luxury bike brand Ibis. Nicol holds out the prospect that it could be beneficial for bike sales in Europe if the dollar exchange rate falls against the euro.

Nicol has recently had experience with currency fluctuations following political decisions: After the Brexit vote, the British pound fell significantly, "and that affected our sales in the UK". Probably not for the better, as the purchasing power of the pound has fallen against the US dollar.

No comment at Sram and Trek

At Sram and Trek, the response to Ride's request was short and sweet: They do not comment on political issues. There is no question that Donald Trump's policies will inevitably influence the business performance of these companies.