The challenger comes from another world

120 Nm, up to 1,000 watts of peak power, and a weight of about 2.5 kilograms: With the Avinox M1, DJI has significantly raised the bar for e-bike drives. And while the industry is still grappling with the first Avinox, the next generation—the M2—is already hitting the stores. And it boasts up to 150 Nm of torque and 1,500 watts of peak power. An estimated 60-plus bicycle manufacturers have already jumped on the Avinox bandwagon.

What’s remarkable isn’t so much the raw numbers. It’s the speed with which DJI has penetrated a market that Bosch has shaped for years. DJI doesn’t come from the bicycle industry, but from the world of drones, electronics, sensor technology, and software. And it is precisely this background that could prove to be a decisive advantage.

Bosch Reacts Rather Than Proactively Acts

Bosch has since stepped up its game. With the Performance Line CX and the CX-R, power and torque have been increased, along with software updates and new features. But these developments increasingly seem like a reaction to what others are offering. This is an uncomfortable position for a market leader. Until now, it had been the other way around: Bosch set the standard, and the competition had to react. Now the question is whether Bosch still has a major technological leap up its sleeve—or whether the company is trying to continue developing the existing platform for as long as possible.

Bosch’s greatest advantage is also its greatest threat

Nevertheless, it would be a mistake to write Bosch off. On the contrary—when it comes to the ecosystem, Bosch is light-years ahead of the competition. Its dealer network, replacement parts, service, batteries, software, ABS, cargo drive systems, and the enormous number of systems already delivered represent a massive advantage. Bosch could therefore become the Intel of the e-bike industry: not necessarily always the most technologically exciting provider, but the one whose systems are found everywhere and trusted by manufacturers and customers alike. But that would mean a loss of power. Bosch would still be the market leader, but would no longer automatically be perceived as the technological market leader.

The e-mountain bike market could become a problem

This is particularly critical in the mountain bike sector. The e-MTB is the technological spearhead of the e-bike industry. This is where weight, performance, handling, and software are discussed. And this is also where the image is formed that extends to other e-bike categories. If, in the future, the most powerful and lightest system is no longer called Bosch but Avinox, perceptions will change. Then Bosch could continue to dominate the market for millions of trekking and city bikes, while tech-savvy customers suddenly start looking for other systems.

Bosch is facing competition from an industry that can deliver innovations faster than the bicycle industry itself.

There’s something else that could pose a threat to Bosch: the motor may lose its status as a unique selling point. For a long time, “Bosch” itself was a selling point. An e-bike with a Bosch drive promised safety, quality, and a fully functional system. But the more powerful systems that come onto the market, the more the motor could become a replaceable component. At some point, customers will no longer ask, “Which system is in it?” but rather, “What can it do?” That would be a fundamental shift for Bosch.

Is the revolution devouring its own child?

Ironically, Bosch could thus become a victim of its own success. Bosch has industrialized the e-bike and made the drive system the central component of the bicycle. In doing so, however, the company has also created a huge market for high-performance electric drive systems. And now companies are entering the market from sectors that, in some cases, bring entirely different technological backgrounds to the table. DJI thinks in terms of electronics, sensor technology, software, and power density. That’s exactly why Avinox seems less like the next evolutionary step in e-bike motors and more like a system from a different technological world. So Bosch hasn’t simply gained a new competitor. Bosch is facing competition from an industry that can deliver innovations faster than the bicycle industry itself. 

And: Bosch simply takes too long to bring innovations to market. This is likely also due to its massive corporate structure: The larger the corporation, the longer the decision-making processes—and the more difficult it becomes to introduce innovations quickly and boldly. For example, Bosch simply missed the boat on the Light Assist trend. In a 2015 interview with Ride, Bosch e-bike boss Claus Fleischer was already talking about e-bikes with smaller batteries, moderate power, and lower weight. Since the Swabians have taken their time launching such a system—not until 2023—doubts are arising as to whether the engine of innovation in Baden is running smoothly. The launch of a hub motor also took an eternity, and when it comes to the MGU—the combined motor and gearbox unit—the Swabians have so far been overtaken from both sides.

What’s next?

Three scenarios are conceivable: Bosch could strike back with a completely new generation of drivetrains and turn the tables again. In that case, Avinox might have been just the wake-up call Bosch needed.

Or the market could split. Bosch remains the dominant supplier for trekking, city, cargo, and large OEM volumes, while Avinox and other Chinese systems set the tone, especially in the performance and e-MTB segments.

The third scenario would be the most uncomfortable for Bosch: Bosch would remain the market leader, but lose its technological authority. Then Bosch would no longer be the company that defines the e-bike drive system, but one of several companies that supply it.

That is precisely why Avinox is more than just a new competitor for Bosch. It’s a warning sign. The crucial question isn’t whether Bosch can build a motor with 150 Nm. Bosch will undoubtedly be able to do that. The crucial question is: Can Bosch once again be the one setting the next benchmark—rather than the one responding to it?