Back in the fall, it became clear that Shimano was being overwhelmed by demand. After the trade fairs for new products in the fall, the parts manufacturer from Osaka announced that it had recorded a twenty percent increase in incoming orders. As orders had already risen significantly last year, Shimano is not only pleased about this. The demand is also causing the company difficulties. Its factories in Japan, Malaysia and Singapore are not large enough to simply increase the production volume by the additional quantity ordered. "At the moment, it is extremely difficult to reorder Shimano parts," says Thomas Hochstrasser, who develops the Bixs brand at Intercycle. Bike manufacturers currently have to wait eight to ten months for their order to leave the Shimano factory. Previously, delivery times of three to four months were the norm. An additional complication is that a complete group now comes from at least three different factories in different countries. Because the capacities of these companies are very different, bicycle manufacturers face major logistical challenges. "If one factory delivers the brakes today and the other the cranks in a month's time, we have heaps of parts in stock and still can't assemble any bikes," explains Hochstrasser.

These delivery delays hit the bicycle industry particularly hard because Shimano is by far the most important component supplier. The industry estimates that around 90 to 95 percent of all new bikes today are fitted with Shimano parts. It is also particularly hard that the supply bottlenecks affect the entire Shimano range: from the cheap Tourney drivetrain to the brand new XT groupset and the hub gears and dynamos for city bikes, all parts are equally affected.

Manufacturers are filling their warehouses
There is no specific reason why so many more parts are suddenly in demand. The only thing bike and component manufacturers can agree on is that the bike market as a whole will not grow at the same rate as Shimano's incoming orders. Although most industry representatives expect a greater demand for bicycles, no one believes that twenty percent more bicycles can be sold. Shimano itself therefore assumes that the bicycle manufacturers are replenishing their component stocks. This is supported by the fact that most of Shimano's component groups have only just been revised, such as the top XTR and XT groupsets and the Deore line. The latest generations of bike parts are much better received on the market than their predecessors (keyword: Dual Control) and are therefore unlikely to be immediately replaced by completely revised versions.

Minor bottlenecks in spring
Despite the supply bottlenecks, no biker need expect to find empty bike stores next spring. "Most of the bikes that will go on sale in spring are already on their way from the Far East to Europe or are already in stock here. The parts for them were already ordered last spring", reassures George Merahtzakis, Managing Director of Velobaze, the producer of MTB Cycletech: "The long waiting periods apply to parts that are being ordered now". In a flash survey conducted by Ride, other manufacturers also gave the all-clear, at least for the start of the season. Whether the shortage of components over the course of the summer will also have an impact on the bike manufacturers' ability to deliver depends heavily on the course of the season, says Stefan Bührer from Felt importer Amsler: "If it stays cold until April, the bike and parts stocks will last until Shimano can deliver again. But if spring comes as early as February, as it did this year, there could be a shortage".

The weather plays a role
The situation with individual spare parts is similar to that of bicycles. The Swiss Shimano importer Fucs-Movesa has filled its warehouses and has been delivering the new components for some time now. However, Urs Kunz, Shimano product manager at Fuchs-Movesa, says that whether stocks will last until the next deliveries from Shimano will also depend on the course of the season. According to Fuchs, it is not yet possible to estimate whether supply bottlenecks will occur during the season and which parts will be affected.Difficult search for alternatives
Meanwhile, bike manufacturers are beginning to develop contingency plans in case they run out of parts. George Merahtzakis wants to look for alternatives from other suppliers. "It's better for us to supply bikes with comparable parts from other manufacturers than no bikes at all". Shimano's biggest competitor, Sram, seems to be ready in any case. Company boss Stan Day assured the industry platform Velobiz.de that Sram can deliver within shorter deadlines than its big Japanese competitor.

However, it may not be quite so easy to switch to alternatives. "Some of Shimano's new products, such as the revised XT groupset or the new hydraulic Deore brakes, are almost impossible to replace in terms of price and function," believes Thomas Hochstrasser. He also anticipates that smaller parts manufacturers will also struggle with supply problems as soon as all bike manufacturers turn to them in search of alternatives.