2020 and 2021 were not normal market years. It was an exceptional situation of historic proportions. Borders were closed, supply chains were disrupted, and factories were shut down. At the same time, demand exploded. Bicycles were suddenly not just sports equipment. They were a substitute for freedom, a substitute for vacations, a substitute for social interaction. And above all, no one knew how long this would last. 

The pandemic chaos was complex 

Today, it is easy to say that we should have realized that a pandemic would end and that money would flow back into long-distance travel instead of mountain bikes. At the time, however, our perspective was completely clouded at times. The idea of a quick return to normality seemed almost naive at times. Terms like "endemic" were abstract; the here and now was brutally acute. Fear of illness and death was rampant. Wearing masks for weeks and months on end was the order of the day. The situation was so intense that an end seemed almost inconceivable. 

Order – or die 

Added to this was systemic pressure: anyone who didn't order early and in large quantities from component manufacturers such as Shimano or Sram risked not receiving any goods for two years. In a market where delivery capability determines market share, restraint is not a moral act – it is a strategic risk. The fact that some Swiss manufacturers kept a cool head as early as fall 2020 speaks for their experience. They accepted that a surge in demand does not automatically mean structural change. They placed their orders with a sense of proportion and are now in a more stable position. That was wise. But it was also easier said than done at a time when even epidemiologists could not provide a clear timeline, only new virus variants and the path to the next lockdown. 

Painful interest rate environment 

The interest rate environment also played a role. In 2020 and 2021, interest rates were effectively zero. Capital commitment was favorable. Capital was cheap. Inventories did not appear to pose an existential risk. It was only when interest rates rose that tied-up capital became a painful problem. This turnaround was unforeseeable for many companies at this speed. 

Cool heads: the scarcest resource 

Greed may have been a factor. But fear of scarcity, misjudgment of an exceptional market, systemic competitive pressure, and a historically unique crisis situation are also part of the truth. The wisest response would have been to enjoy the boom with restraint. But at a time when no one knew when and how the world would reopen, a cool head was a rare resource. Those who judge today should not forget that.